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JasonSit Sat, 02 Aug 2025 09:09:38

The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.

One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.

Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”

Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.

Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.

“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.

Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.

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It all started back in March, when dozens of surfers at beaches outside Gulf St Vincent, about an hour south of state capital Adelaide, reported experiencing a sore throat, dry cough and blurred vision after emerging from the sea.
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Shortly after, a mysterious yellow foam appeared in the surf. Then, dead marine animals started washing up.

Scientists at the University of Technology Sydney soon confirmed the culprit: a buildup of a tiny planktonic algae called Karenia mikimotoi. And it was spreading.
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In early May, the government of Kangaroo Island, a popular eco-tourism destination, said the algal bloom had reached its coastline. A storm at the end of May pushed the algae down the coast into the Coorong lagoon. By July, it had reached the beaches of Adelaide.

Diverse algae are essential to healthy marine ecosystems, converting carbon dioxide into oxygen and benefiting organisms all the way up the food chain, from sea sponges and crabs to whales.

But too much of one specific type of algae can be toxic, causing a harmful algal bloom, also sometimes known as a red tide.

While Karenia mikimotoi does not cause long-term harm to humans, it can damage the gills of fish and shellfish, preventing them from breathing. Algal blooms can also cause discoloration in the water and block sunlight from coming in, harming ecosystems.

The Great Southern Reef is a haven for “really unique” biodiversity, said Bennett, a researcher at the University of Tasmania, who coined the name for the interconnected reef system which spans Australia’s south coast.

About 70% of the species that live there are endemic to the area, he said, meaning they are found nowhere else in the world.

“For these species, once they’re gone, they’re gone.”

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